Critical Situations for Decision Making: A Support Based on a Modelling Tool

This paper proposes to give a toll to help decision makers in critical situations. The principle of our research is based on a modelling approach for Cooperative Knowledge Based Systems. This approach is based on a Task/Method paradigm that we describe. We then propose to take into account collateral effects of tasks in order to support decision makers in a critical context. The proposed tool can then generate a degraded solution for which, collateral effects of previous tasks have been taken as new goals to reach. This study is possible thanks to the definition of several kinds of models: a Good Functioning Model and a Degraded Tasks Library.     

The Effect of Moral Intensity on Ethical Judgment

Following an extensive review of the moral intensity literature, this article reports the findings of two studies (one between-subjects, the other within-subject) that examined the effect of manipulated and perceived moral intensity on ethical judgment. In the between-subjects study participants judged actions taken in manipulated high moral intensity scenarios to be more unethical than the same actions taken in manipulated low moral intensity scenarios. Findings were mixed for the effect of perceived moral intensity. Both probable magnitude of consequences (a factor consisting of magnitude of consequences, probability of effect, and temporal immediacy) and social consensus had a significant effect; proximity did not. In the within-subject study manipulated moral intensity had a significant effect on ethical judgment, but perceived moral intensity did not. Regression of ethical judgment on age, gender, major, and the three perceived moral intensity factors was significant between-subjects, but not within-subject. Ethical judgment was found to be a more robust predictor of intention than perceived moral intensity using a within-subject design. Joan M. McMahon is an Assistant Professor of Management in the Luter School of Business at Christopher Newport University, teaching courses in Organizational Behavior, Leadership, and Human Resources. She has a B.A. in Speech from the State University of New York, College at Oneonta; an M. Ed. in Early Childhood Education from James Madison University; and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Industrial/Organizational Psychology from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Robert J. Harvey is an Associate Professor of Psychology at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. He has a B.A. in Psychology and an M.A. in Experimental Psychology from the University of Missouri at Kansas City, and a Ph.D. in Industrial/Organizational Psychology from Ohio State University. Dr. Harvey has authored a number of articles in the Journal of Applied Psychology, the Journal of Personality Assessment, Personnel Psychology, and others. He is the author of the chapter on job analysis in the Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology.     

Agent-Based Facilitation of Water Allocation: Case Study in the Drome River Valley

The purpose of the 1992 French Water Act is to encourage negotiation and dialogue among local stakeholders within a framework which is very similar to a patrimonial approach. Potential use of models in such post-normal approaches is analyzed. Two kinds of models are compared: one is agent-based, the other follows a more classical approach. They are compared according to their contributions as negotiation support tools. This comparison is based on a specific collective decision process dealing with water allocation at the sub-basin scale, in which authors are involved. Both are used to support collective decision processes through simulation of resource use dynamics. Agent-Based Models entail the broadening of spatial information of actors in the process, revealing inter-connected topics not taken into consideration earlier. This makes it possible to remain relevant, despite the sometimes rapidly evolving stakes. The central point of this paper is the implementation, within a practical application, of theories advocating the use of ABM as a collective decision support system. This application promotes a better understanding of the kind of support ABM provides and the way it does so. This is brought about more by re-framing the discussion and modifying the representation of the system on the part of the stakeholders than by providing specific agreements.     

Family life in grocery stores – a study of interaction between adults and children

Today the family is seen as a unit for food choice and consumption. The influence of family members on food choice comprises several stages that can be carried out both in the private home and in the public sphere, such as the grocery store. This makes the grocery store a context in which ordinary family life can be observed. The aim was to study families and the interaction between children and adults in the grocery store, focusing on young people's involvement in food shopping. Hidden observation and family interview methods were used. A total of 338 people were observed in seven different grocery stores in Stockholm during the summer and autumn of 2003. Seven family interviews, involving a total of 29 persons, were conducted in Uppsala in the spring of 2003. In the interviews, parents reported avoiding shopping for food together with children as they experienced it as stressful and exhausting. The observations showed that family life in the grocery store comprises not only the food purchase, but also bringing up children and consumer education. Young people's involvement in the food purchase varied depending on their age and the specific product. The different behaviour observed may be interpreted as reflecting the variation in ways of bringing up children at home. Another conclusion is that a public place such the grocery store facilitates pedagogical situations and can work as a tool for informal education.     

电子商务环境下物流配送中心选址决策与评价方法研究

电子商务环境下的物流配送中心选址涉及到多方面的因素,是一项复杂的系统工程。为此,提出了定量化的启发式算法来初步确定电子商务环境下配送中心选址方案。方案的确定是为了决策,因此依据定量计算和定性分析的结果,采用协调分析方法来科学地决策符合电子商务环境下的最优选址方案。     

基于期权定价理论的风险投资决策

项目评价的传统方法———净现值(NPV)法在应用于风险投资项目时,由于低估了投资价值,往往会使得投资者失去一些有价值的投资机会。结合风险投资的特性,将期权定价理论应用于风险投资决策中,并建立连续及离散两种状态下的决策模型     

中国转轨经济中的银行资产选择行为分析——一个将制度性因素内生化的银行资产选择模型

本文立足于中国转轨经济中的信贷市场,强调制度性因素对银行贷款决策和资产选择行为的影响,通过建立一个银行资产选择模型,将这些制度性因素的影响内生化,利用广义的边际分析,分析了在不确定性条件下,中国商业银行贷款变动的原因以及由此导致的结构性信贷配给机制,并且指出,在中国以银行间接金融为主导的金融市场上,银行决策者在不确定性条件下根据自身的偏好和效用函数而作出的相对独立的贷款决策和资产选择行为,不仅可能导致货币政策失效,还可能对经济运行和经济增长的质量产生独立的影响.     

试论净现值法在投资决策中的缺陷及改进

净现值法作为一种基本的投资决策方法,更符合企业财富最大化的假设及长期发展目标。在实际应用中,净现值有时会使公司的投资决策预期与实际结果产生很大的偏差。运用风险累加法和参考经验数据法合理确定折现率,并引入实物期权理论,可提高决策的科学性和准确性,使投资决策更为合理。     

银行授信资产组合优化决策模型与求解

我国商业银行信贷资产占全部资产的70%以上,信贷风险是银行最主要、最直接的风险。因此,研究信贷风险控制模型,并给出简单有效的风险计算方法,为信贷部门提供辅助决策支持,对降低银行不良资产率,提高经营效益具有重要的意义。     

散户参与家庭农场的稳定性分析--基于随机演化博弈视角

家庭农场在我国是一种新兴的农业生产组织形式,它的规模效益取决于散户流转到家庭农场主体的土地等资源,稳定的散户群体是确保家庭农场正常运转的基础。然而,散户的决策易受周围人或事物的影响,具有随机性。文章运用演化博弈理论,在散户的人均收益、放弃其他产业的机会成本以及具有约束性质的惩罚成本等因素之基础上增加随机项,构建含有随机项的复制动态方程,并得出判断散户参与家庭农场稳定性的依据,通过契约调整和制度建设能够实现家庭农场的稳定发展。最后文章基于安徽省家庭寄卖数据对模型进行数值模拟,提出相关政策建议。